Census 2000: 1, 2, 3 and Counting
Christopher B. Williamson PhD, AICP	© & Author Info

Abstract

This session is not an in-depth discussion of Census 2000, there would not be enough time. It is more a presentation of lists of topics, events, suggestions, cautions, etc all related to the taking of the national census, using the data, and how that process affects planners working primarily in city, county, and state governments; community organizations; and consulting firms.

Session Speakers

Joining me in this session are three speakers who are each deeply involved in Census 2000 which is already underway in your states, counties, and cities:

Peter Bounpane is a career Census Bureau professional who works directly for the Director. He will summarize national level events—past, current, and upcoming—and focus on the likely impact recent decisions on data quality.

Mike Burns works for the Seattle Regional Census Center and is responsible for all census operations in the state of Oregon and northern half of California. He will bring the national perspective down to your level—in local governments and communities.

Kelly Grieve is GIS Analyst for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments. Sacramento, CA was the site of the only urban Dress Rehearsal census. Kelly was in the thick of it—buried in TIGER maps and local activities. He will relate his experiences and have some practical advice to share.

I am Dr. Chris Williamson from the University of Southern California. My entire working life has somehow evolved centered around census data—as a Census Bureau employee, data user, city GIS planner, environmental consultant, and now as a educator. I have been following Census 2000 for the American Planning Association as a Research Fellow and am confident that this panel will give you the best possible up-to-date useful information about Census 2000.

I will start our session with five lists. I’ve asked each of the speakers to shy away from the usual Census 2000 motivational jargon and uses of census data and to focus more on the taking of the census, especially the activities at the local level in the next 12 months. We will try to end at 11:00, leaving about 20 minutes for questions between panel members and from you. We have a set of handouts prepared, but I suggest you pull our final lists from the APA Website.

LIST 1: More than a One-Number Census

• ‘Traditional Enumeration’ Count to be used for Apportioning Congress
• Estimated Undercount by area, race/ethnicity, age, tenure, and other?
• ‘Adjusted’ or ‘Sampled’ Count that is the sum of #1 and #2.
• Counts by other governments and organizations

The U.S. Supreme Court's January 25 decision to uphold lower Federal Appeals Court rulings in two Republican-led lawsuits has effectively killed the use of sampling during the labor-and-cost intensive period after the census when enumerators go door-to-door to verify vacant housing units or try to find and interview residents who are hard to find and/or may not want to be interviewed. But, the decision does not rule out the use of sampling and other statistical methods that could be used to ‘adjust’ the traditional but incomplete head-count for other purposes. A multi-count census is inevitable: 1) the traditional but incomplete head-count and, 2) an adjusted count created by adding the estimated undercount to the first count. Whether the Census Bureau creates the second count or the user community is irrelevant, there will be two numbers.

What counts the Census Bureau will produce, to what geographic level and accuracy, and when is yet to determined as the dispute between the Republican Congressional leadership and the White House continues, now focused on the budget.

LIST 2: Major Changes in Census Geography and content

• New Census Block Numbers and Possibly Modified or Split Tracts.
• Tabulations of the Multi-Response Race Question
• Change in the Definition of a Housing Unit
• Housing Questions Moved to Sample or Dropped (See Attachment)

The most significant change for all data users will be the tabulations of Race. For Census 2000, which allows the public to select more than one race, there will be more race tables and cross tabulations and they will be more complicated and single and multiple race responses are cross-tabulated with age, Hispanic Origin, household type, and so on. The Census Bureau should have summary data that allow matching to 1990 Census race categories.

The Census Bureau definition of housing unit has dropped ‘eating separately’ from others. It’s possible for a one-room unit with bath—but no kitchen—to be counted as a housing unit instead of group quarters, special place, or a motel or hotel room. How the definition is finalized and implemented in the field through training is important. In some areas, the definition change could lead to ‘false’ changes in the number and nature of the housing stock.

LIST 3: Things You Will Be Asked to do this Coming Year

• Create a Complete Count Committee and provide it technical support.
• Justify Census 2000 related local expenses to your decision makers.
• Begin preparing a legal defense of whatever Census count you use.
• Provide lists of group quarters, motels, hotels, ‘homeless’ facilities, mobile home parks, areas where ‘homeless’ congregate, areas where Census Bureau employees should not travel alone, areas with high vacancy rates, areas and buildings with difficult access due to security, and other local information that would assist the Local Census Office.
• Suggest local media for Census 2000 paid advertising, especially minority media.
• Create a local government policy on government employees moonlighting for the Census Bureau, especially those who work in law and code enforcement.
• Review and update TIGER maps and address lists whenever you have the chance.

And, perhaps most important and seldom discussed:

• Devise a method of evaluating Census 2000 results independent of the Census Bureau that provides fast feedback to local community leaders.

Although the decennial population and housing census is a Federal responsibility, it has become a national numbers game, in some respects, where the financial stakes are worth the added efforts of local governments. Ironically, overcounting may become as much a problem as undercounting.

LIST 4: Gain the Technical Skills you will need to Access Census 2000 data

• Learn how to access census data via the Census Bureau home page, practice with 1990 Census data and Dress Rehearsal data.
• Install and learn a GIS desktop program that is compatible with Census Bureau products.
• Aquaint yourself with the 1990 Census undercount in your jurisdiction and consider how and if you would adjust the 1990 Census data before linking it to Census 2000 data in preparing trends and projections.
• Aquaint yourself with the various companies that sell census data. Buy their products and learn the technicalities of their data. You may have to rely on vendor data and you should know ahead of time who you would prefer.
• Work with your local APA chapter to set up a Census 2000 training program.

Preliminary findings of a national survey of census data using planners show that planners in small jurisdictions have many duties including preparing simple census profiles and trends. They rate their skills as poor in other skills and applications more likely to be needed in even small jurisdictions such as creating tabulations from raw data (depending on how much pre-tabulation the Census Bureau will complete). There are most skilled planners in larger jurisdictions. But, even there, skills related to assessing census data quality, adjusting for undercounts, and working with GIS and the Internet to acquire data are consistently identified as needed training.

LIST 5: Become Data Proactive, Political, and Progressive

• Lobby your state government to adopt a Census 2000 data policy and possibly pass legislation protecting local governments from lawsuits over which Census 2000 data are used.
• Educate yourself and others about the ever increasingly important role of information in the function of local government; take some classes in information management and legal issues.
• Develop ethical information guidelines concerning the collection, storage, resale, release, and disposal of information.
• Assign responsibility for data to specific people and incorporate that responsibility into performance reviews.

The ongoing story of Census 2000 is a wake-up call in the information age for the information economy. Information, and data, are sources of political and economic power. The Republican Party is terrified of losing what slim majority they have in the House of Representatives and they are willing to hobble an entire economy, political system, and civil rights with census undercounts if it benefits their political agenda. Who counts, how we count, and who controls data are critical components of what is supposed to be a participatory pluralistic representative democracy.

Missing housing units and residents puts permanent dents in census data that haunt census data users of all types for decades. Many of these dents are in areas where they do the most harm; minority neighborhoods, service-dependent populations, and children. The Civil Rights community will not sit quietly by and see funding and political representation reduced for another ten years. Expect lawsuits at every level to force Federal, state, and local governments to use adjusted census counts for all purposes other than Congressional reapportionment. It’s not clear if state governments could use adjusted counts to redraw Congressional districts even though they would differ from the counts used to allocate Congress. Expect groups with contrary views to challenge adjusted counts with countersuits.

What does this entail for geographers? Census 2000 already has major changes: multi-responses in the race question and a redefinition of housing unit. Undercount adjustment estimates will not be accurate in geography below 100,000 population, but they must be rolled down to the block level. There will probably not be corresponding changes in housing counts or other socio-economic data. All population-based rates and ratios will be contaminated. If you calculate household size in a minority urban area with adjusted counts you could find large increases compared to 1990 unadjusted data.

The Census Bureau’s plan was to use sampling and release one set of counts. Now, we will have two. Hopefully, Congress will have enough sense to fund a full and complete undercount estimation program and we will not be tangled in a spider’s web of lawsuits and statistics. I am, unfortunately, not hopeful—at least not today.

Dr. Chris Williamson is a Research Associate Professor of Geography at the University of Southern California who directs the Graduate Certificate Program in GIS and is developing a research, teaching, and professional outreach agenda focused on the 2000 Census of Population and Housing (Census 2000). Chris worked for the U.S. Bureau of the Census between 1979 and 1988 as computer programmer/analyst, geographer, survey statistician, and Special Assistant to the Director. He has first-hand knowledge and experience with census geographer, census data collection procedures, quality control, questionnaire design, interviewer training, and data products including raw data, TIGER, metadata, and summary reports. He participated in planning of the 1990 Census and managed the 1986 Post Enumeration Survey of the Test Census that became the method by which census error and undercount is estimated. As the Special Assistant to the Director, he wrote speeches and prepared documents for the White House and U.S. Congress. As a city planner and consultant, he used census and related data to prepare legally adequate environmental analyses and ordinances, mid-decade redistricting estimates, and challenges to official state statistics. He is the American Planning Association’s Research Fellow on Census 2000 and will chair the APA’s panel on Census 2000 at the April national conference. He writes for APA publications, is developing GIS and Internet-based Census 2000 curriculum, and will shortly release results of a national survey of planners’ training needs related to Census 2000. He also speaks to professionals and on public radio about Census 2000.